Journal of Intellectual Disabilities and Offending Behaviour

Fourth-Generation Risk Assessment Framework for Sexual Offending in People with Intellectual Disability

Dr. Ashish Kumar Sahu (1), Dr. Shilpi Nishant Tanwani (2)

(1) Assistant Professor, Kalinga University, Naya Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India
(2) 2Assistant Professor, Kalinga University, Naya Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India
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Abstract

The contemporary forensic practice has changed the inflexible actuarial models to the fourth-generation (4th Gen) models that focus on dynamic risk management and rehabilitation. The paper evaluates 4thGen applicability to sexual offenders with intellectual disability (ID), which is underserved by generic tools, which do not factor in cognitive impairments. A proxy ID cohort is filtered using the NIJ Recidivism Forecasting Challenge data (N=25,000) based on low educational attainment (=)-8th grade or less- and required mental health program-proxies- proxy variables used as stand-ins in the offender literature, despite the limitations in the data used. Baseline 3-year sexual re-offense rates are 4-8% in high-risk groups. There is a baseline of factors that remain constant (prior convictions, age at release) and that dynamic moderators, such as Program Attendances and Supervision Levels determine important outcome variance. In the proxy cohort, high Program_Attendances (>10 sessions) correlates with 15-20% lower recidivism odds (OR=0.82 from logistic regression). This confirms Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) alignment in 4thGen models, alignment of interventions with cognitive responsivity. The suggested framework measures the protective factors (stable housing, therapeutic alliances) as dynamic and does not imply the high/low dichotomies. It puts emphasis on responsivity - the ID-specific propose ability and communication obstacles - so that disability is not pathologized and that the case can be prevented and handled proactively. This strategy provides predictive risk management of ID populations through the multidisciplinary approach to ethical concerns. The second-generation actuarial systems cannot handle complex forensic cases compared to real-time dynamic data.